Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 09:50:07

ACUS48 KWNS 130950
SWOD48
SPC AC 130948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Considerable model spread and uncertainty exist for severe weather
during the early part of the extended period.  Models have become
more aligned in the positive-tilt character of a mid-level trough
that is forecast to move across the central and eastern US through
Thursday-Friday (day 4-5).  However, large differences exist in the
placement of a surface low early Thursday and its forecast
evolution.  Will defer possible outlook adjustments to later
forecasts once model variability decreases and confidence increases
towards a particular scenario with the forecast mid-level trough
evolution and surface low track.  The cold front with the late-week
system will clear the East Coast by early Saturday, and no severe
potential is forecast Saturday-Monday (day 6-8).

...Smith.. 02/13/2023

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