Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 08:24:35 ACUS03 KWNS 130824 SWODY3 SPC AC 130823 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas and Oklahoma eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday late afternoon through Wednesday night. ....Synopsis... A mid-level low and associated trough, initially over UT/AZ, will gradually move east into the central High Plains and southern Rockies/southern High Plains by Thursday morning. A lower-latitude mid-level disturbance is forecast to move northeast from east-central TX Wednesday afternoon into the lower MS Valley by early evening. Strengthening low-level WAA and isentropic lift will likely lead to developing showers/thunderstorms across the lower MS Valley eastward into the TN Valley during the afternoon. Only weak buoyancy is expected with this activity and this will likely limit updraft vigor. However, a few stronger storms could yield a localized severe risk, before a later episode of storms eventually moves into parts of this general region during the overnight. Farther west and more consequential for the severe outlook, the leading edge of stronger mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent will move northeast from the southern High Plains into northern OK during the late afternoon into the early evening. Models show the mid-level trough will acquire a positive tilt and remain anchored from the central High Plains into the Desert Southwest into Thursday morning. As a result, a gradually weakening surface low is forecast to move from eastern NM Wednesday morning to central OK by mid evening, and subsequently into southern MO by early Thursday. Southerly low-level flow will advect increasing moisture north into north TX and OK during the day. It appears a cap will largely limit storm development/coverage through the early evening across OK/TX, before a gradual increase in convective coverage ensues through the evening. Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop (250-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Although it remains unclear how severe clusters/bands of storms will eventually evolve Wednesday night from TX/LA northward into AR, a threat for damaging gusts, hail, and a couple of tornadoes will shift east towards the lower MS and lower OH Valleys by the end of the period. ...Smith.. 02/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .