Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 06:43:05 ACUS02 KWNS 130643 SWODY2 SPC AC 130641 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and early evening. ....Synopsis... A mid-level low/trough initially centered over the OK Panhandle will rapidly move to the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, and subsequently into the Upper Great Lakes by early Wednesday. A surface low will coincidentally develop northeast from southeast CO to northern WI. A Pacific front will sweep eastward across KS and parts of OK during the day before stalling and arcing westward to a developing surface low over central NM by early Wednesday morning. ....Lower MO Valley... Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the morning will quickly move east/northeast away from the area as a zone of WAA shifts east towards the MS River by the late afternoon. Some heating near the approaching mid-level cold core may yield 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE, in a narrow plume to the immediate southeast of the surface low during the afternoon. Convection-allowing model guidance generally agrees in showing low-topped thunderstorms developing within this corridor during the mid-late afternoon to the early evening. With some modest heating of surface temperatures into the lower 50 deg F beneath very cold 500 mb temperatures around -25 deg C, relatively steep lapse rates are forecast in the presence of some limited boundary-layer moisture. Enlarged hodographs suggest the possibility for a weak marginal supercell or two arising from this activity will dissipate after sunset. ....Arklatex/Ozarks... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of OK/north TX and consolidating into a north-south band of low-topped convection. Limited low-level moisture ahead of this band will negate the development of substantial buoyancy into the diurnal heating cycle. Very strong low to mid-level wind fields will accompany the eastward progression of the low-topped convection. At this time, severe wind probabilities do not appear warranted. ...Smith.. 02/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .