Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 00:30:36

ACUS01 KWNS 130030
SWODY1
SPC AC 130029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few flashes of lightning may be noted with convection across the
desert Southwest later tonight.

....Desert Southwest...

Early-evening satellite imagery depicts an upper low off the
northern Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance inland
later tonight as 500mb speed max (increasing to near 100kt by
13/12z) rotates through the base of the trough toward northwest
Mexico. Left exit region of this jet will encourage large-scale
ascent across the lower CO River Valley as temperatures fall to near
-30C (500mb) by the end of the period. 00z sounding from NKX
exhibits several hundred J/kg SBCAPE where onshore flow has
moistened the boundary layer. However, downstream, the air mass is
initially quite dry across the lower CO River Valley. Further
cooling/moistening should result in weak buoyancy developing late
tonight such that weak convection is possible. Forecast soundings
suggest lightning may be noted within the strongest updrafts.

...Darrow.. 02/13/2023

$$

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