Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 19:28:37

ACUS01 KWNS 121928
SWODY1
SPC AC 121927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the
nation late this afternoon through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Any lingering risk for isolated thunderstorm development across the
Inner and Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina appears likely to
diminish by around 23-00Z, as the center of the deepening surface
cyclone migrates offshore.  However, additional weak thunderstorm
development may still be possible this evening near/just offshore of
the Outer Banks, where residual surface moisture may remain
sufficient to support weak boundary-layer destabilization, as the
mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temps to around -24 C)
overspreads the region.

...Kerr.. 02/12/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/

....Synopsis...
A closed midlevel low and associated surface cyclone will move
across the Carolinas today and offshore by tonight.  The unstable
surface warm sector is already confined to offshore waters east of
the Outer Banks, though some elevated convection with isolated
lightning flashes will still be possible today across northeastern
NC/southeastern VA.  Farther west, another closed low will move
east-southeastward toward northern Baja and the lower CO River
Valley.  Low-midlevel moisture will remain limited with this system,
though the combination of midlevel cooling and modest moistening of
the column may become sufficient for the development of weak
buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes in
southwest AZ.

$$

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