Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 16:25:33

ACUS01 KWNS 121625
SWODY1
SPC AC 121623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible through midday over the
Tidewater region of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and
late tonight in parts of Arizona.

....Synopsis...
A closed midlevel low and associated surface cyclone will move
across the Carolinas today and offshore by tonight.  The unstable
surface warm sector is already confined to offshore waters east of
the Outer Banks, though some elevated convection with isolated
lightning flashes will still be possible today across northeastern
NC/southeastern VA.  Farther west, another closed low will move
east-southeastward toward northern Baja and the lower CO River
Valley.  Low-midlevel moisture will remain limited with this system,
though the combination of midlevel cooling and modest moistening of
the column may become sufficient for the development of weak
buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes in
southwest AZ.

...Thompson/Lyons.. 02/12/2023

$$

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