Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 09:57:31

ACUS48 KWNS 120957
SWOD48
SPC AC 120955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance continues to show a powerful mid-level
trough traversing across the Lower 48 states through the end of the
work week.  There is little change from the previous forecast for
Wednesday (day 4), with the severe risk beginning near the Red River
and spreading east into the Arklatex/lower MS Valley during the
overnight.  Models have shown consistency in showing the cyclone
track into the southern Great Lakes on Thursday (day 5) with the
warm sector protruding north into the OH Valley/southern Great
Lakes.  The positive tilt to the large-scale trough would suggest
instability being pinched off for much of the Northeast and parts of
the Mid-Atlantic states/Carolinas on Friday (day 6).  The upper-air
pattern will become unfavorable for severe weather by next weekend.

...Smith.. 02/12/2023

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