Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0146
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 07:59:30

ACUS11 KWNS 120759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120758=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-121100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia and northeastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 120758Z - 121100Z

SUMMARY...Rain transitioning to snow and mixed precipitation over
the next few hours. Potential for freezing rain rates up to a
..10"/hr possible.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery of an upper level low currently
located over the southeast showed a pronounced dry slot region
impinging across portions of Tennessee and the Carolinas. Ahead of
this feature, ongoing convective showers have shown intermittent
changes to sleet and brief snowfall. Surface temperatures have
struggled to drop below freezing in most locations. Wet-bulbing is
occurring, as shown by a drop in the freezing level from KHLX in
Blacksburg, where the freezing level dropped from around 2000 ft AGL
to 1300 ft AGL in the last hour. Additionally, surface temperatures
in northeastern North Carolina near Jefferson have dropped to 32 F
at the last observation. Further north into Virginia, light snow was
reported in observations from Hillsville. The main factor in
accumulations of any wintry precipitation will be the degree of
wet-bulb cooling that can occur before the dry slot begins to
intrude into the region and reduce precipitation intensity. Given
current observations and trends in radar and satellite, a transition
to mixed precipitation should continue. A brief period of freezing
rain with rates up to a 0.10"/hr may lead to minor ice accumulations
and slick travel.

...Thornton/Edwards.. 02/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zIyrVaUSY24h-y3KsR_nBag2sW1fMcGqiVf4B6l3XHfRsLkXOTUbYVBtAJLfirKNWRd_p9E2=
Kl3tIM7sZ0zmfM0Ndc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON   36738237 37078232 37198168 37228134 37118096 36928069
            36678066 36428073 36378175 36738237=20


=3D =3D =3D
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