Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 08:35:21

FOUS30 KWBC 120835
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 12 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 13 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area in place for a small portion of
southeast Virginia and adjacent North Carolina as a broad shield
of rain overspreads the area despite the diminishing window of
opportunity. The 12/00Z run of the GEFS still shows precipitable
water values in excess of 1.25 inches during the morning which is
nearing the 90th climatological percentile and moisture flux
values over 2 standard deviations above climatology which does not
seem totally unreasonable given the upper level support provided
by increasing difluence.  The problem is that these conditions get
ushered out to sea very quickly without a prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rainfall rates. In addition..the coastal swamp
and sandy soils may mitigate the potential for excessive rainfall.
 However...any rainfall this morning will be in addition to what
fell prior to 12Z and the combined amounts may still result in
localized problems with run-off or ponding in areas of poor
drainage before the entire area of rain heads out to sea by late
morning or early afternoon.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 13 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 14 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 14 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 15 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GzRP_f3uer9WZyF42Ryci1o3I467Pc3Rqv5y0_CREW3=
EL6A2liRzrZwoSoA1auenpV-RfpfOrg1yS58e2OejEJrO6k$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GzRP_f3uer9WZyF42Ryci1o3I467Pc3Rqv5y0_CREW3=
EL6A2liRzrZwoSoA1auenpV-RfpfOrg1yS58e2OelnJE0v0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_GzRP_f3uer9WZyF42Ryci1o3I467Pc3Rqv5y0_CREW3=
EL6A2liRzrZwoSoA1auenpV-RfpfOrg1yS58e2Oe87tVFw8$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.