Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 05:15:00

ACUS01 KWNS 120514
SWODY1
SPC AC 120513

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NC OUTER BANKS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may affect the North Carolina Outer Banks this
morning, with a risk of a brief tornado.

....NC Outer Banks...
A few strong thunderstorms may approach the NC Outer Banks this
morning, as a mid/upper-level cyclone approaches the region and a
surface low moves northeastward near the NC coast. Weak buoyancy and
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the potential
for organized convection through mid/late morning, before a cold
front moves through the Outer Banks. With cold antecedent conditions
and widespread precipitation preceding the potential arrival of the
warm front near the coast, it remains uncertain whether the boundary
layer can warm sufficiently to support surface-based convection.
However, with 0-1 km SRH forecast to range between 200-400 m2/s2
near the warm front and surface low track, a brief waterspout or
tornado affecting the Outer Banks vicinity cannot be ruled out
through around 15-16Z.

...Dean/Thornton.. 02/12/2023

$$

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