Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 12 2023 01:00:28

ACUS01 KWNS 120100
SWODY1
SPC AC 120059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH FL AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA...

....SUMMARY...
Storms capable of isolated damaging wind and perhaps a tornado
remain possible across north Florida this evening.

....Florida into southeast GA and the coastal Carolinas...
Despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear and MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (as noted in the 00Z TBW/TLH soundings and regional
VWPs), convection has struggled to organize over north Florida
through the day into this evening, likely due in part to weak
midlevel lapse rates, storm interference, and the lack of a stronger
low-level focusing mechanism. Convection will spread northeastward
tonight as a strong mid/upper-level cyclone approaches the region
from the west. A brief window of time remains from north FL into far
southeast GA for a storm or two to mature within the favorably moist
and sheared environment, with strong low-level flow/shear supporting
a threat of isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado. This
threat will diminish after 03Z, with storms expected to weaken or
move offshore of north FL/southeast GA thereafter.

Secondary surface low development is expected later tonight near the
GA/SC coast, with this low expected to move northeastward very near
the SC/NC coasts into Sunday morning. The warm front may approach
the coast in conjunction with this low, and a strong storm or two
may affect the near-coastal waters, but a shallow stable layer near
and just above the surface will likely persist over inland areas,
limiting the severe risk.

...Dean.. 02/12/2023

$$

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