Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0145
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 11 2023 20:50:56

ACUS11 KWNS 112050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112050=20
FLZ000-112315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023

Areas affected...Portions of north/central FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112050Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes may
gradually increase this afternoon. While not immediately likely,
eventual watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...20Z analysis shows a surface warm front draped across
the northern FL Peninsula. Considerable cloudiness remains present
over this area from upstream convection, which has muted diurnal
heating to some extent. Still, the presence of mid to upper 60s
surface dewpoints along/south of the warm front is contributing to
around 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strengthening mid-level
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough centered over the lower
MS Valley is supporting 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. A southerly
low-level jet is also expected to shift eastward across north
FL/south GA over the next several hours.

Expectations regarding convective evolution this afternoon and
evening remain somewhat unclear. One cell has modestly strengthened
over interior north FL while moving northeastward along/near the
warm front. Any discrete thunderstorms that can form and be
sustained along this front may rotate and pose a tornado threat
given the presence of around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Farther
west, a broken band of convection ongoing off the FL Gulf Coast
should eventually spread inland in the next few hours. This activity
may pose a threat for damaging winds, but modest low-level lapse
rates and cool shelf waters could keep this risk fairly isolated.
Trends will be closely monitored through this evening for signs of
increasing convective coverage and intensity.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7rLTzpI3o3IBnJRJ3ViipyBobQIdBVbH3eG3SVG0FzYbVaZP5uTD4Vl2dLVWBNE0Iy9dpq2vd=
gJeq45gK3-CiJqi7aU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28628267 29198280 29568240 29878123 29188093 28418232
            27928271 27988285 28628267=20


=3D =3D =3D
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