Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 11 2023 17:21:59 ACUS02 KWNS 111721 SWODY2 SPC AC 111720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing some risk for severe weather may approach, and perhaps spread across, portions of North Carolina coastal areas Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, mainly near Outer Banks vicinity. ....Synopsis... Blocking has become a bit more prominent within the mid/upper flow across the southern mid- and subtropical Pacific, near and to the east and north of the Hawaiian Islands. Around the northern periphery of this regime, a number of progressive short wave troughs are embedded within a strong belt of westerlies extending more or less zonally downstream of the northern mid-latitude Pacific, across the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. This includes one forecast to dig east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night, and another across the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Within an initially more amplified branch across the southern mid-latitudes, it appears that the center of a significant mid-level low, currently digging along the California coast, will bottom out to the west of northern Baja, before turning inland Sunday night and reaching southwestern Arizona by 12Z Monday. A similar, but deeper, downstream low is forecast to migrate from the Georgia Piedmont across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast. In association with the lead perturbation, a significant cold front likely will have advanced through much of the Gulf of Mexico and south/east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys by the beginning of the period. Secondary surface cyclogenesis may gradually be underway near the North Carolina coast, but it appears that the more rapid deepening may not occur until later Sunday through Sunday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. In the wake of the developing cyclone and trailing cold front, generally dry and/or stable conditions will prevail across much of the nation. ....North Carolina coast vicinity... Based on consideration of the various model output, the potential for severe thunderstorm development near and inland of coastal areas early Sunday still appears rather low. This will mostly depend on the evolution of the surface frontal wave/low, which remains a bit uncertain, but could perhaps include a strongly sheared and unstable warm sector boundary layer spreading inland across portions of coastal areas. If this occurs, it probably would be accompanied by a risk for organized severe convection, including supercells. ....Southwest... It appears that stronger destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing lightning, beneath a mid-level cold core including 500 mb temperatures of -28 to -30 C, probably will remain initially offshore of southern California coastal areas. However, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night this may change with cooling aloft along and east of the Peninsular Ranges through the lower Colorado Valley. Destabilization within a downstream warm advection regime across the Mogollon Rim into Colorado Plateau may also become marginally sufficient for scattered weak thunderstorm development. ...Kerr.. 02/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .