Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 11 2023 06:00:55 ACUS01 KWNS 110600 SWODY1 SPC AC 110559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FL... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into north Florida through this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ....Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone will move from east TX into the Southeast today. As this occurs, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and move northward into the FL Panhandle/southern GA, with a secondary surface low expected to develop near the coastal Carolinas late tonight. A cold front attendant to the primary surface low will move eastward across the central/northern Gulf today, and into the FL Peninsula this evening. ....FL Panhandle/North FL and vicinity... A conditionally favorable environment for organized storms is expected to evolve across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL later today, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for storms to mature and become severe within this environment. Convection will likely be ongoing this morning across parts of the northeast Gulf of Mexico into north FL. The early-day convection may tend to weaken with time, though periodic storm development will remain possible through the day within a moist and generally uncapped environment. Meanwhile, wind profiles will become increasingly favorable for rotating storms this afternoon from the eastern FL Panhandle into north FL, as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthen in response to the approaching mid/upper-level cyclone and developing surface low over the northeast Gulf. With limited large-scale ascent for much of the day (with the front not arriving until evening), and weak midlevel lapse rates limiting buoyancy, storms may struggle to mature. As a result, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and magnitude of the severe-thunderstorm threat, though any supercells that can evolve within this environment would pose a tornado risk, in addition to a threat of locally damaging gusts. While the details remain uncertain, the greatest relative threats may be over the eastern FL Panhandle in closer proximity to the surface low, and in areas of north FL where low-level convergence and shear may be locally maximized near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. ....Coastal Carolinas overnight... The secondary surface low is forecast to move very close to the SC coast overnight. At this time, the threat for surface-based convection is expected to remain just offshore through 12Z Sunday, with some threat potentially evolving near the NC Outer Banks early in the D2/Sunday forecast period. ...Dean/Thornton.. 02/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .