Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 11 2023 01:00:55

ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight
across parts of north Florida, with a primary threat of isolated
damaging wind gusts.

....North FL...
Convection has gradually increased in coverage and intensity over
the northeast Gulf of Mexico this evening. With time, this
convection will spread inland over north FL, where relatively rich
low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg. Moderate
southwesterly midlevel flow is supporting 30-40 kt of effective
shear, sufficient to maintain some storm organization, and a couple
of organized cells or clusters may move across north FL later this
evening into the overnight hours in the vicinity of weak outflow
boundary left behind by earlier convection. Poor midlevel lapse
rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, but isolated
strong/damaging gusts may accompany the strongest storms tonight
across parts of north FL, where a small Marginal Risk has been
maintained with this outlook.

...Dean.. 02/11/2023

$$

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