Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 19:40:54

ACUS01 KWNS 101940
SWODY1
SPC AC 101939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight
across north Florida and southeast Georgia.

A band of storms currently extends from the GA/FL border
southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Heating ahead of the
line has contributed to over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, beneath
front-parallel southwesterlies aloft. Given around 40 kt of
effective shear and favorable time of day, a few strong wind gusts
may occur. Other storms are expected to move across northern FL this
evening, with continued marginal risk of severe. Tornado risk
appears minimal given primarily straight hodographs/weak SRH.

...Jewell.. 02/10/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/

....North FL/southeast GA through tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern
Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday
morning.  Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist
through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front
from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where
low-level ascent will be focused.  There will be sufficient
deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some
storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close
to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this
afternoon.  Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through
most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed
until the day 2 period.  Overall, the environment appears marginal
for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments
and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and
perhaps a brief/weak tornado.

....Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight...
Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with
the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the
northern/central CA later today into tonight.  Some shallow
convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth
of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning
production.

$$

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