Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 17:02:23

ACUS02 KWNS 101702
SWODY2
SPC AC 101700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into northern Florida Saturday and Saturday evening.

....Florida Panhandle/Northern Florida...
An upper low will deepen Saturday as it travels from the Sabine
Valley to the central Gulf Coast by 00Z, reaching GA by Sunday
morning. A cyclonically curved 100 kt midlevel speed max ahead of
the low and strong height falls will overspread GA/FL after 00Z as
850 mb winds increase to over 40 kts. Meanwhile, a surface low will
gradually deepen over the northeastern Gulf and FL Panhandle late in
the day, with a stalled front over northern FL. A cold front will
also push east across the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the western FL
Peninsula after 00Z.

Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are most likely over the land portion
of the warm sector, with relatively cool surface temperatures due to
ongoing precipitation and clouds. The eastern FL Panhandle portion
of the boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front during the
day just ahead of the low, resulting in SBCAPE over 500 J/kg over
coastal counties. As such, ongoing storms along the intersecting
cold front may pose a tornado risk during the day as cells move
onshore, especially if surface temperatures can approach 70 F.

As the more unstable air continues to push north, a tornado risk may
translate eastward across northern FL near and after 00Z. By 06Z,
much of the large-scale lift will pivot northeast of the area where
the air mass will be too stable for severe storms.

...Jewell.. 02/10/2023

$$

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