Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 16:03:51

ACUS01 KWNS 101603
SWODY1
SPC AC 101602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight
across north Florida and southeast Georgia.

....North FL/southeast GA through tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern
Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday
morning.  Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist
through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front
from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where
low-level ascent will be focused.  There will be sufficient
deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some
storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close
to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this
afternoon.  Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through
most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed
until the day 2 period.  Overall, the environment appears marginal
for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments
and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and
perhaps a brief/weak tornado.

....Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight...
Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with
the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the
northern/central CA later today into tonight.  Some shallow
convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth
of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning
production.

...Thompson/Supinie.. 02/10/2023

$$

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