Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 16:02:48 AWUS01 KWNH 101602 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-102150- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0061 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1102 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 101550Z - 102150Z Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible this afternoon especially along a stalled frontal boundary in southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Additional, localized areas of 2-3 inch rainfall totals are possible. Discussion...A band of convection currently resides along a stalled surface boundary extending from near TLH to near JES.=20 South of that boundary, a warm, moist airmass (characterized by 1000-2000 SBCAPE and 1.6 inch PW values) continued to support deep updrafts and heavy rainfall. The orientation of the storms was generally parallel to both 1) flow aloft and 2) the initiating boundary, allowing for training of storms and localized areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rainfall rates generally along the surface boundary. Additional, elevated convection near far southeastern Louisiana was also migrating toward the discussion area, although at a more progressive pace compared to convection in the discussion area. Indications are that the ongoing axis of heavy rainfall will persist potentially for several hours, with slow eastward translation off its current axis as governed by upscale growth of convection into clusters or bows that propagate. The slow movement of the cells and moist airmass will promote an additional 2-3 inches of rainfall on a localized basis where training is most pronounced. Upstream convection across southeastern Louisiana should also add another 0.5-1.5 inch of rainfall on a more widespread basis despite the more progressive nature of that convection. FFGs across the region are in the 2.5-3 inch/hr range, suggesting that any flash flood risk should remain tied to where training is most pronounced and rain rates are heaviest.=20 Areas of heavier rainfall are likely to persist through 22Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uTzt4OJyLMMB7BKqykPNLVcp9568L9LJDOtcyWLeG6y-v37bv-3bJp9lr4HiQy-qn1C= Q2y-tmIM68T6cDuALQtNU-M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32838142 32028113 30868149 29848252 28908460=20 28798597 30398456 31358358=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .