Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 08:51:19

ACUS48 KWNS 100851
SWOD48
SPC AC 100849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Tuesday (day 4-5)...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a lead
mid-level disturbance ejecting northeastward into the central US
late Monday into Tuesday.  A prior frontal intrusion this weekend
through the Gulf basin will limit modification of a
continental-polar airmass.  The development of thunderstorms and
strong to severe potential appears greater on Tuesday across parts
of the Arklatex/lower MS Valley, but uncertainty remains regarding
airmass quality.

....Wednesday/Thursday (days 6-7)...
Medium-range models exhibit notable spread in the evolution of a
subsequent upstream mid-level trough forecast to move into the
central states and eventually Great Lakes.  However, more
consistency/agreement is becoming evident in the ECMWF/Canadian
operational runs and the ECMWF ensemble mean/GEFS ensemble, with the
operational GFS the outlier.  Factors seemingly warranting an
introduction of 15% severe probabilities include the strength of the
model-forecast storm system, and ample time for appreciable
modification of the airmass over the Gulf and Gulf Coast states.

...Smith.. 02/10/2023

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