Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 08:24:43

FOUS30 KWBC 100824
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 10 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 11 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA...

A stalling frontal zone is expected to result in a lingering axis
of significant tropospheric moisture (precipitable water values of
1.3-1.7 inches, above the 90th percentile climatologically per the
GEFS) from the FL Panhandle and southern AL northeastward into
south-central GA, SC, and extreme southeastern NC on Friday and
Friday night. Despite the presence of these anomalously high
PWATs, large-scale lift is still expected to remain fairly limited
(as the aforementioned upper-low slowly digs south into the far
western Gulf) with very little instability expected initially.  So
a fairly narrow Marginal Risk area was mostly maintained, with
rainfall totals generally expected to range from 1-2 inches across
the area. Localized higher amounts are possible mainly from near
and to the west of the Florida Big Bend to south-central Georgia
due to the potential for training cells across the stalling
frontal zone...although expanded the southern boundary of the
Marginal a bit in the northern Florida peninsula in respons to a
QPF bullseye shown by the ECMWF and CMC.  The 00Z HREF still
maintained a non-zero probabilities for greater than 3" in 6 hours
along this corridor...while an offsetting concern is that portions
of Florida is in D2 drougt. Given the relatively dry antecedent
conditions across the Southeast and already limited potential for
rainfall to exceed the high FFG, any instances of flash flooding
are expected to remain isolated and primarily confined to areas of
poor drainage during this time period. However, any rainfall could
lead to more sensitive soils ahead of a final surge of
precipitation on Saturday.

Bann


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5q_5nryBeGYXhxaN-adCtp4Q-HiScymGqKQqMKVTzEgr=
mFHC6zXUxSEzNBUUHHUK56YK43Mds7VdyPFGni3rGnDaH6c$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5q_5nryBeGYXhxaN-adCtp4Q-HiScymGqKQqMKVTzEgr=
mFHC6zXUxSEzNBUUHHUK56YK43Mds7VdyPFGni3r1xOUvbI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5q_5nryBeGYXhxaN-adCtp4Q-HiScymGqKQqMKVTzEgr=
mFHC6zXUxSEzNBUUHHUK56YK43Mds7VdyPFGni3rJg-yjK4$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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