Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 06:38:20

ACUS02 KWNS 100638
SWODY2
SPC AC 100636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday and Saturday evening.

....FL...
A mid-level low initially near the TX/LA border will migrate
eastward along the central Gulf Coast to GA by early Sunday morning.
In the low levels, a front will be draped from southwest to
northeast across the eastern Gulf through north FL and into the Gulf
Stream to the east of the FL/GA coast.  A cyclone is forecast to
develop northeastward along the boundary and move from the northeast
Gulf to north FL by early evening and subsequently to the SC shelf
waters by daybreak Sunday.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast near and
north of the front on Saturday morning.  Cloud breaks and heating
during the day will destabilize the airmass across the northern and
central parts of the FL Peninsula.  Surface dewpoints are expected
to range in the middle 60s immediately south of the boundary and the
upper 60s farther south near the I-4 corridor.  Strengthening flow
in the low to mid levels by late afternoon will result in
lengthening hodographs and the potential for storm organization.
Uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary and
possible modulating effects of convection influencing the amount of
destabilization prior to mid-late afternoon.  As the surface low
reaches by the Big Bend region of FL by late afternoon/early
evening, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop.  Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible and a tornado/damaging-wind risk
may accompany these storms, before the activity moves offshore
and/or weakens by the late evening owing to waning instability.

...Smith.. 02/10/2023

$$

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