Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 05:25:53

ACUS01 KWNS 100525
SWODY1
SPC AC 100524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FL
INTO SOUTHERN GA/SC...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible today from north Florida
into southern Georgia and extreme southern South Carolina.

....Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted longwave trough will cover much of the
eastern CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the southwestern
portion of the longwave trough is forecast to amplify and develop
into a midlevel cyclone near the ArkLaTex region by tonight. A cold
front draped from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into GA and the
central Carolinas this morning will move southeastward through the
day, with a weak frontal wave potentially developing late tonight
over the northeast Gulf.

....North FL into southern GA/SC...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period this
morning across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Panhandle,
within a weak warm-advection regime. This convection may spread
east-northeastward through the day, with additional development
possible near/south of the southeastward-moving cold front across
central/southern GA into southern SC. In areas where stronger
diurnal heating can occur, relatively rich low-level moisture will
support modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) within a
moderately sheared environment, supporting the potential for a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Locally damaging gusts will likely
be the primary threat, though 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 will
support the potential for a brief tornado as well. Some hail cannot
be ruled out, though confidence in a severe hail threat is low due
to uncertainty regarding convective mode and the magnitude of
destabilization. The severe threat is expected to peak from late
morning into the afternoon, before the stronger storms weaken or
move offshore tonight.

...Dean/Thornton.. 02/10/2023

$$

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