Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 10 2023 00:31:53

ACUS01 KWNS 100031
SWODY1
SPC AC 100030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low for the remainder of
tonight.

....Southeast...
Despite the presence of a cold front moving through a moist and
weakly unstable environment, vigorous thunderstorm development has
yet to materialize across the Southeast today, likely due to weak
midlevel lapse rates across the warm sector and limited large-scale
ascent over the region. A cluster of convection over the northeast
Gulf of Mexico may still spread over coastal regions this evening,
with additional elevated convection possible later tonight, as
another mid/upper-level trough begins to approach the region from
the west. Modest deep-layer shear may support a strong storm or two
near the FL Panhandle and vicinity later this evening, while steeper
midlevel lapse rates farther west (as noted in the 00Z LIX sounding)
may support a couple of strong elevated storms overnight to the cool
side of the frontal boundary. However, the potential for severe wind
or hail within this only weakly favorable environment appears
limited in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent.

...Dean.. 02/10/2023

$$

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