Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 17:01:51

ACUS02 KWNS 091701
SWODY2
SPC AC 091700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible mainly from southern
Georgia into northern Florida on Friday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough over the Plains will shift east,
breaking into a cut-off low over the lower MS Valley and a
progressive shortwave across the Northeast. At the surface, high
pressure will surge south across the western Gulf of Mexico with a
weak surface trough from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the eastern
Carolinas during the afternoon. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will
exist ahead of this surface trough, with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms over southern AL, GA and the FL Panhandle Friday
morning.

Given ongoing precipitation, low-level lapse rates will be poor, and
only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop from
northern FL into southern GA. Modest deep-layer shear will exist
beneath a southwesterly flow regime, which may aid storm longevity
in some cases. Overall, the severe risk appears low, but veering
winds with height within the weak forcing regime may support a
brief/weak tornado or a few strong wind gusts.

...Jewell.. 02/09/2023

$$

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