Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 10:01:16

ACUS48 KWNS 091001
SWOD48
SPC AC 090959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Sunday...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with a cold front having exited
Florida into the Atlantic and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

....Days 5-6 Monday/Tuesday...
A low-latitude upper-level trough is expected to move
east-northeastward over the southern Plains toward the Midwest by
Tuesday. After a late-week frontal intrusion across the Gulf of
Mexico, it appears that the opportunity for appreciable air mass
modification and significant low-level moistening will be limited.
Regardless, some potential for a few strong/severe thunderstorms may
exist Monday across south-central/southeast Texas, and possibly
eastward to parts of the middle Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday. 15% severe probabilities are not currently warranted.

....Days 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday...
Early indications are that severe-weather potential may increase
with the approach of a secondary upper-level trough, potentially
including parts of the ArkLaTex, Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Mid-South. However, considerable uncertainty exists with the
magnitude/primary regional locations of this currently speculative
severe potential.

...Guyer.. 02/09/2023

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