Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 08:29:17

FOUS30 KWBC 090829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 09 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 10 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND WESTERN GEORGIA...

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall has been maintained for the
western FL Panhandle, southern AL, and portions of southwestern GA
for the new Day 1 ERO, due to a stalling cold front moving into
the region this morning. The only meaningful change from the prior
issuance was to shrink the northern extent of the Marginal, given
better CAM agreement on a farther south QPF maxima. Precipitable
water values ahead of the front values are likely to range from
1.4-1.6 inches (well above the 90th percentile per TLH sounding
climatology), with sufficient instability (MUCAPE of 250-750 J/kg,
per the HREF mean) suggesting that rainfall rates may locally
approach 2"/hr at times. There is also the possibility of
repeating rounds of heavy rainfall, given the stalling of the
trailing front (with HREF 3" neighborhood exceedance probabilities
as high as 20-40% over the western FL Panhandle and southern AL).
However, antecedent soil conditions in the region are quite dry,
with NASA SPoRT 0-40 cm soil moisture values indicated to be as
low as the 10-20th percentile. This should significantly limit the
areal extent of any flash flooding, along with the fact that any
3" exceedance will likely occur over a period of longer than 6
hours (with one distinct round of precipitation expected this
morning in association with the front, and another round towards
Friday morning as a deepening upper-low approaches from the west).
Nevertheless, poor drainage/urban areas will be the most at risk
of realizing any isolated flooding impacts. It's also worth noting
that the amount of rainfall that ultimately occurs today will have
important implications for Friday and Saturday, as the FL
Panhandle and surrounding portions of AL/GA may see many
additional rounds of locally heavy rainfall going into the
weekend.=20

Churchill


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9NpgV2KPRdJ66St8W5XGQTDS4YsEuT87IG-8mNXhnov9=
W5zXsNsYGHFyWD8yoGzMamgmIoa51ofaBuyBb8SSoHyPv0g$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9NpgV2KPRdJ66St8W5XGQTDS4YsEuT87IG-8mNXhnov9=
W5zXsNsYGHFyWD8yoGzMamgmIoa51ofaBuyBb8SSQva0BWY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9NpgV2KPRdJ66St8W5XGQTDS4YsEuT87IG-8mNXhnov9=
W5zXsNsYGHFyWD8yoGzMamgmIoa51ofaBuyBb8SSLxELtnA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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