Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0141
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 03:50:46

ACUS11 KWNS 090350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090350=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-090445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Southeast LA into southern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 090350Z - 090445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of an isolated strong to severe storm continues
across parts of Tornado Watch 32. A downstream watch is not
currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a broken line of
convection with a few deep/embedded updrafts tracking northward from
the northern Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. This activity is
generally being aided by a plume of broad low-level warm advection,
though the primary low-level jet is lifting northward into MS per
regional VWP data. Upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints over
southeast LA and a veering wind profile in the lowest 1 km (around
250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from LIX VWP) could support a brief tornado
threat with any deeper/persistent updrafts. Overall, the threat
appears localized, and a new watch is not currently expected
downstream of Tornado Watch 32. However, convective trends will be
monitored.

...Weinman/Grams.. 02/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6vxV2S7eMtlWzJeGnnnClW9wzmaHdSK41exUgcwY6j-bY3VNxc8n0Kp3pKeOnwVkwEhmm3tx_=
WUET_LZd0JVSwB3kIA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   28949020 29049082 29509084 30289048 30769004 30988959
            30938902 30778870 30088881 29048946 28949020=20


=3D =3D =3D
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