Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0139
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 02:09:13

ACUS11 KWNS 090209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090208=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwest into south-central MS and
southeast LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 090208Z - 090345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a couple mesovortex
tornadoes should increase during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPOE shows an organizing
north-south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at
around 50 mph over far southwest MS into southeast LA. Lower/middle
60s dewpoints should continue to yield surface-based inflow for this
line, while 50+ kt of midlevel flow oriented oblique to the
leading-edge gust front should favor a continued organized/linear
mode. Additional upscale growth/storm mergers downstream along with
a strengthening pre-frontal low-level jet should support an
increasing risk of damaging gusts. 50-70 mph gusts (some locally
higher) are possible with any bowing/forward-propagating segments in
the line. In addition, favorably curved low-level hodographs (per
DGX VWP data) could also support a couple mesovortex tornadoes --
especially in parts of the line that become oriented more SSE-NNW.

...Weinman.. 02/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!40GWIaFprRVP7SJlxggtJbY-NLOYhMi_bxfNts6GVBJt5Oj78eKy6Yu9xaZjrC_cBWpnJ7vmX=
8yZk3muOXwlUidgWUs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31089139 31749127 32119113 32499075 32589020 32428985
            32068975 31039008 30519050 30489112 30709137 31089139=20


=3D =3D =3D
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