Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0138
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 00:57:45

ACUS11 KWNS 090057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090056=20
MSZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090056Z - 090200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are gradually intensifying across northern MS early
this evening.  It is uncertain whether a tornado watch is needed.=20
Short-term convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of storms developing
across northern MS to the north of a mainly stratiform rain area to
the south over central MS.  Surface analysis indicates lower 60s deg
F dewpoints over northern MS with richer low-level moisture farther
south (mid 60s along the I-20 corridor).  As the mid-level shortwave
trough continues to pivot towards the region, hodographs are
forecast to enlarge across northern MS.  If storms can become
surface-based, a tornado risk may potentially accompany these storms
if/once they evolve into supercells.  Otherwise, an isolated
damaging-wind threat will tend to be the primary risk with the
stronger storms through the evening hours.

...Smith/Grams.. 02/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-jV4p5YUYkeWeaOxhZZ9e3SgMFjCt9TdDQivgcgbYIERk_LK12aiCcS_1WjjZShQtPX3-EDK1=
rfVX_QAd4d9pgb73hE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33969034 34648972 34858922 34508854 33858866 33318949
            33449028 33969034=20


=3D =3D =3D
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