Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 00:36:08 AWUS01 KWNH 090036 FFGMPD KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090604- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0059 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 734 PM EST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...AR and southeast MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 090034Z - 090604Z SUMMARY...An uptick in rainfall intensity over areas with saturated or saturating soil conditions may lead to some additional flash flood concerns over the next several hours from north central AR into southeast MO. DISCUSSION...The mid level trough over OK and TX is beginning to take on more of a negative tilt as it pushes eastward this evening. This is resulting in an increase in the mid level forcing and an uptick in low level moisture transport across the lower MS Valley. The most robust convection is developing south of the warm front across portions of southern AR, LA and MS. The good news is that this is south of the areas hardest hit with heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours. The harder hit areas, and thus locations with saturated soil conditions, across central and northern AR are north of the front and thus displaced from the better instability. With that said, the increase in forcing should be enough to result in some uptick in convective coverage/intensity across central and northeast AR over the next couple hours. Recent HRRR runs support hourly rainfall up to 1" or so from portions of central AR into far southeast MO and southern IL...with total additional rainfall of 1-2" in spots. The MPD area was drawn where there is overlap of more saturated ground conditions, from the rain that has already fallen, and the potential for this additional 1-2" of rain. The better chance of getting closer to 2" is across southeast MO into southern IL, areas that have not seen as much rain as central AR. Thus there is some displacement between the most sensitive areas and where the heaviest additional rainfall is expected. For that reason, and due to the progressive nature of this final convective line, we will go with a possible tag for this MPD instead of likely. Current thoughts are that additional flash flooding should be mainly localized in nature, although more broader areal flood concerns will likely continue. Chenard ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Hod_Rt3PDh503SwjdW29ta7sflf4CfYNLaMjvQSU7GDOq6A8TbNegx2TEU1I83bMOD3= L1YIq5akyRRHs1Uj3mErQGk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37888933 37698912 37258900 36198988 35989003=20 35779024 35289119 34959194 34499270 34699297=20 35399283 35499282 36189253 36829156 37099091=20 37539029 37609022 37848972=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .