Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0136
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 09 2023 00:07:13

ACUS11 KWNS 090007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090006=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...far northern parts of southeast LA...parts of
southern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 090006Z - 090130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...The most appreciable tornado risk ---featuring the
possibility for a couple of tornadoes--- will be focused across far
northern parts of southeast LA into southern MS during the 6-8 pm
period as the wind profile gradually strengthens amidst a
moist/adequately unstable airmass and supercellular mode is probably
maintained.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows 66-68 deg F dewpoints residing
across the warm sector over southeast LA into southern MS.  The
Slidell, LA (KLIX) VAD data shows a gradual strengthening in the
wind profile mainly in the 1-3 km layer.  Although buoyancy will
slowly lessen through the evening, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is
currently analyzed per objective analysis.  The combination of a
moist boundary layer, moderate buoyancy, and supercellular mode
suggest a continuation and perhaps increase of the tornado risk
through 8 pm across parts of southern MS to near the LA/MS border
north of Lake Pontchartrain.

...Smith.. 02/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9QgzNL-DA2M_yDXQlezXVXtecxu4_if87NfBWnGgx_HoX87J5lGoe1iZmJjJTRc4nPbbGyBL5=
kjCcGuzdB9STxB97yQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30969055 31539020 31688987 31508962 30729020 30799043
            30969055=20


=3D =3D =3D
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