Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0132
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 08 2023 18:02:13

ACUS11 KWNS 081802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081801=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081801Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears probable during the 18-21
UTC time period. Storms will gradually intensify through late
afternoon and may pose a severe risk heading into the evening hours.
Trends will be monitored for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Continued air mass modification is evident in latest
GOES-16 imagery across southern LA. Gradual clearing has allowed for
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s amid an influx of upper
60s dewpoints. This has yielding MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg
per recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates, with further destabilization
expected through late afternoon. This trend is confirmed by a recent
18 UTC sounding from LIX, which sampled MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with
minimal inhibition. 1-minute imagery reveals a few clusters of
deeper cumulus across southern LA along weak confluence axes. These
clusters are not yet evident in low-level water vapor or IR imagery,
suggesting that deep convective initiation is still 1-2 hours away.
However, latest high-res guidance suggests convective initiation
across the destabilizing warm sector is probable during the 18-21
UTC period, which is supported by the aforementioned observed
trends. Given somewhat modest wind profiles over the warm sector
(only 17 knots of effective bulk shear sampled by the 18 UTC
sounding) and weak forcing for ascent, convection will likely be
slow to mature. However, the approach of stronger forcing for ascent
from the west combined with improving kinematic fields should
support intensification during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed as
the severe potential increases.

...Moore/Kerr.. 02/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9xz7V30Fwd4zJaQt2V4zh6QQ0A0bRjwu2VUngBwgkCBw1ceWG5Wn3aLfWxW35IFNoGSfYYMQV=
DEnZd24-npWbbDUSms$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29889388 30299399 30909380 31309345 31439290 31389216
            31199105 30839010 30288980 29758972 29318986 29049025
            29099087 29309142 29449162 29529199 29529243 29609274
            29759327 29779365 29889388=20


=3D =3D =3D
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