Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 08 2023 15:29:00

AWUS01 KWNH 081528
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 AM EST Wed Feb 08 2023

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081526Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy rain and occasional
thunderstorms are expected going into the early to middle
afternoon hours.  There is the potential for some instances of
mainly minor flooding where rainfall rates exceed one inch per
hour and/or several hours of 0.5 to 1 inch/hour rates through 3 pm
local time.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a consistent
swath of moderate to heavy stratiform rainfall with embedded
convective elements across much of central and western Arkansas,
and more in the way of convective rainfall across the ArkLaTex
region where mixed layer CAPE is on the order of 250-750 J/kg
based on recent SPC mesoanalysis.  Farther north, there is weak
elevated instability across south-central Arkansas, but otherwise
the lack of appreciable instability is a mitigating factor.  This
region also has the greatest PWs which are generally in the 1.4 to
1.7 inch range as of 15Z.

A comparison of the CAM guidance to ongoing radar trends suggest
the latest HRRR runs have a relatively good depiction of what is
currently happening, and the ARW and ARW2 are also in decent
agreement in terms of placement.  These models are suggesting the
potential for a corridor of additonal 1.5 to 2.5 inch totals
through 21Z, mainly from Texarkana to Jonesboro, Arkansas.=20
Portions of west-central Arkansas have already registered 2 to 4
inches of rain since midnight local time based on local reports,
and 1.5 to 3 inch reports over portions of southeast Oklahoma.=20
These areas will be a bit more vulnerable to additional rainfall
today, even though extreme rainfall rates are not expected owing
to a lack of sufficient instability.  Overall, this is a marginal
case for flash flooding, but enhanced run-off and ponding of water
in poor drainage areas could become a problem for some areas.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Y0hDg92-BVNYvxm5vEKWsQouV2CHiRHpxcFbpYRsSJKqeWepJfu0n_jGrmhgbrnQrbT=
xFN2ALaNnJnluA2XXdriVgA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36659080 36339017 35329086 34499185 33449326=20
            32439457 32489539 32969584 33629564 34769493=20
            35519400 36139299 36619217=20

=3D =3D =3D
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