Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 08 2023 09:01:31 AWUS01 KWNH 080901 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081400- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EST Wed Feb 08 2023 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southwest AR... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080900Z - 081400Z SUMMARY...Possible isolated low-end incidents of flash flooding or increased streamflow as system reloads with approach of main height-falls toward late morning. Stripes of 2-3" additional totals may occur with increasingly favorable training with upstream redevelopment probable. DISCUSSION...Current RADAR mosaic depicts precipitation shield with embedded weak showery/convective elements embedded within across SE OK into SW AR while more widely scattered weak cells continue to develop upstream near Dallas-Fort Worth. Surface low continues very slow northeast progress near JDD with increasing symmetric wind flow, warm sector over the southeast continues to be weakly unstable with low to mid-60s Tds with slightly warmer temps, while cold front extends nearly due south toward CFD/11R before bending west across to another weak weave near PEZ. Above the boundary layer, broad LLJ continues to provide solid moisture flux across eastern TX toward the surface low, however, western edge remains farther west of the shallow cold front and so deeper layer convergence and isentropic ascent remains limited until in nearer proximity of the surface low, leading to the increased shallow convective cores scattered about the DFW metro. RAP analysis suggest MUCAPE is filtering north of the boundary toward the Red River Valley to support some increased vertical development (and therefore increased rainfall efficiency) at least for a few more hours before best upper level divergence slides a bit too far away across N AR (3-5hrs, per HRRR/RAP forecasts).=20 Upstream shortwave energy remains weak positive tilt but is expected to swing eastward increasing convergence along the western edge of the 850 LLJ. Some thunderstorms are starting to break through across the southern Permian Basin into the Hill country of central TX and this shift east should aid upstream redevelopment across northeast Texas toward 13-15z. This may allow for short burst convection to track through areas that have seen recent rainfall overnight and have lowered FFG values across the region; 1hr values less than 1.5" and 3hr values below 2.5".=20 While, there remain mixed signals to even reaching this potential within the guidance suite, the current SW-NE orientation of new activity is parallel to deep layer steering between the exiting right entrance/shortwave feature in AR and the approaching main shortwave. This may allow for narrow stripes of enhanced rainfall with a remaining possibility to exceed the longer term FFG values suggesting an isolated incident of flash flooding or two may occur over the next few hours and given modest instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) rates up to 1" and totals up to 2-3" are possible. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4CnfSC3_lzlY6crwx8OTSRNmKjnjMAh0FLj2Xg5bVGR0kmJBZaGtQKs_tFLyKuUk9M4= Rwl5Mw0QIR6_kDxvaoWIOZY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35489391 35209291 34689283 34309301 33769355=20 33329434 32989539 31859672 32479770 33519694=20 34459553 34989496=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .