Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 08 2023 06:58:40 ACUS02 KWNS 080658 SWODY2 SPC AC 080657 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia, as well as the Midwest including Indiana and Ohio. ....Southeast States including parts of Florida/Georgia/Alabama... Weakening bands of convection and related cloud debris will likely exist across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Thursday morning. The brunt of the Midwest-centered upper trough will quickly shift northeastward away from the region, but weak height falls will occur while a belt of strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds will tend to lag the cold front. This cold front should decelerate and eventually stall across the Southeast into Thursday night, but scattered thunderstorms will tend to persist eastward and/or redevelop within the diurnally destabilizing warm sector, particularly in areas within 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This is the most probable corridor for where isolated severe storms could occur Thursday. This could potentially include a few supercells/small bows capable of wind damage and/or a brief tornado risk across northern Florida/southern Alabama into southern Georgia. ....Midwest/Middle Ohio River Valley... Have introduced low wind-related severe probabilities for the region mainly for Thursday morning. A fast-northeastward-moving low-topped convective line should be located across eastern Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky around sunrise Thursday morning. Pre-frontal dewpoints into the lower 50s F should be enough to yield very weak surface-based buoyancy, which should be sufficient to sustain some of the ongoing semi-organized low-topped convection. Given the extremely strong low/mid-tropospheric winds (75+ kt at 850-700 mb), convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur, even with little/if any lighting flashes, and at a time when boundary layer stability tends to be maximized. The convective line and convectively enhanced wind gust potential may quickly develop east-northward across Ohio and toward the Lake Erie vicinity through midday. ...Guyer.. 02/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .