Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 08 2023 06:01:42 ACUS01 KWNS 080601 SWODY1 SPC AC 080559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. ....Synopsis... Upper low currently moving into the southern High Plains is forecast to continue eastward across the southern Plains today, becoming more progressive and negatively tilted as it does. An associated surface low is currently centered about 25 miles west of TYR in east TX, along a slow-moving cold front. This surface low is expected to deepen while gradually moving northeastward this morning, before then accelerating northeastward this afternoon and evening as the upper low also accelerates eastward/northeastward. The cold front is also expected to quickly move eastward in response, likely extending from the low over northwest AR southward through southwest LA at 00Z. Additional northeastward progress of the surface low is expected thereafter, with the low likely centered over central IL by 12Z. At that tine, the cold front will likely extend southward from the low through middle TN and then more southwestward through southeastern LA. ....East TX through the Lower MS Valley... Widespread warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from central TX into eastern OK/far western AR this morning, along and behind the cold front expected to extend from northeast TX back southwestward into central TX. Limited buoyancy should temper any severe potential with this activity. Low-level moisture advection is expected to persist across the warm sector, likely resulting in a broad area of mid 60s dewpoints ahead of the front by early afternoon. Pre-frontal convection will likely increase during the late afternoon/early evening across LA as ascent spreads across the region. Buoyancy will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal heating. In contrast, moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in place, supported by a strengthening low-level jet, and the potential exists for organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. However, a slightly elevated and more multicellular mode is currently anticipated, with storm interactions potentially limiting updraft organization. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the front, with the moderate vertical shear contributing bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a line-embedded tornadoes. Greatest chance for tornadoes within the line appears to be from north-central LA eastward into central MS, where slightly higher buoyancy could overlap with strong low-level jet in the presence of surface-based storms. ....Arklatex into the Lower OH Valley... The deepening surface low is forecast to track northeastward from the Arklatex across central AR and southeast MO into central IL. Ascent attendant to this low will augment the already strong forcing near the upper low and associated jet streak, contributing to thunderstorms just ahead of the low as it progresses northeastward. Bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and maybe a line-embedded tornado or two are possible across southern AR this evening. Despite limited buoyancy, the strong forcing for ascent may contribute to additional damaging wind gusts overnight across southwest MO and into southern IL. ...Mosier/Weinman.. 02/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .