Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 07 2023 09:59:04

ACUS48 KWNS 070959
SWOD48
SPC AC 070957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Friday...
As a secondary/positive-tilt upper trough moves generally eastward
over the Deep South, some severe-storm potential will probably exist
from parts of Florida/Georgia into the coastal Carolinas. A
relatively moist air mass (60s F surface dewpoints) will be in place
ahead of a cold front and southwesterly winds will be relatively
strong through a deep layer. In spite of some probable severe risk,
the magnitude of such a risk remains uncertain. 15+ percent severe
probabilities do not currently appear warranted given factors such
as weak overall buoyancy and modest low-level convergence.

....Days 5-6 Saturday/Sunday...
Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.

....Days 7-8 Monday/Tuesday...
Related to the probable east/northeastward advancement of a
low-latitude upper-level trough early next week, early indications
are that severe potential could begin to increase by around Monday
across the southern tier of the CONUS. While 15+ percent severe
probabilities are too speculative at this point given some guidance
variability/moisture return uncertainty, a severe risk can be
expected as early as Monday if guidance trends persist. This could
include east/southeast, and possibly central, Texas on Monday, with
the severe risk subsequently expanding eastward on Tuesday to
potentially include the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Guyer.. 02/07/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.