Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 07 2023 08:30:37

ACUS03 KWNS 070830
SWODY3
SPC AC 070829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the
Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia.

....Southeast States including parts of Florida/Georgia/Alabama...
A weakening squall line or at least residual bands of convection and
related cloud debris will likely exist across parts of Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle Thursday morning. The brunt of the
Midwest-centered upper trough will quickly shift away from the
region, but steady height falls will still occur while a belt of
strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds will tend to lag the cold
front. This cold front should decelerate and potentially stall
across the Southeast on Thursday, but scattered thunderstorms will
tend to persist eastward and/or redevelop within the diurnally
destabilizing warm sector, particularly in areas within 75-100 miles
of the Gulf of Mexico. This is the most probable corridor for where
isolated severe storms could occur. This could potentially include a
few supercells/small bows capable of wind damage and a tornado risk
across northern Florida/southern Alabama into southern Georgia.

....Midwest/Middle Ohio River Valley...
A fast-northeastward-moving low-topped convective line may be
located across Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio around sunrise Thursday
morning. Given the extremely strong low/mid-tropospheric winds (75+
kt at 700 mb) and modest moisture (50s F surface dewpoints),
convectively enhanced wind gusts cannot be ruled out early in the
day, even at a time when boundary layer stability tends to be
maximized. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks
for potential inclusion of wind-related severe probabilities.

...Guyer.. 02/07/2023

$$

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