Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 07 2023 08:28:03

FOUS30 KWBC 070827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Tue Feb 07 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 08 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS, SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS...

A positively-tilted trough will eject from the Four Corners region
today, interacting with a jet streak over the Ohio Valley that
will strengthen to near 130 kts by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Deep southerly flow ahead of this system will bring in high levels
of tropospheric moisture, characterized by precipitable water
values of over 1.25 inches (between 2 and 2.5 standard deviations
above the climatological mean). This, combined with strong lift
and instability (MUCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg), could result in
intense rainfall rates of over 2"/hr at times. Deep layer flow
being nearly parallel to expected storm motions may also lead to
repeated rounds and training of heavy rainfall locally (with the
best odds of this occurring in the Slight Risk area, where HREF 40
km neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance are has high as
30-40%). It is also worth noting that NASA SPoRT 0-40 cm relative
soil moisture values remain above the 80th or even 90th percentile
of climatology locally across portions of eastern TX and southern
AR, with 7-day precipitation departures as high as 300-600 percent
of normal across much of northern and eastern TX (while soils are
drier overall across most of OK and northern AR, as low as the
10-20th percentile).

Churchill/Bann


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cbwEaTSx4uQJycC8nU3wXRmt8iLcO0P1ihsYtSPgirx=
75MfUZUp5AZBmG_c8fPnJnHrM3AF_yypLTf113NRBGkyMaE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cbwEaTSx4uQJycC8nU3wXRmt8iLcO0P1ihsYtSPgirx=
75MfUZUp5AZBmG_c8fPnJnHrM3AF_yypLTf113NRVUswjXY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4cbwEaTSx4uQJycC8nU3wXRmt8iLcO0P1ihsYtSPgirx=
75MfUZUp5AZBmG_c8fPnJnHrM3AF_yypLTf113NRnh4LJhM$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.