Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 07 2023 07:06:34 ACUS02 KWNS 070706 SWODY2 SPC AC 070704 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLAMISS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley... A shortwave trough and an increasingly strong polar jet will spread northeastward on Wednesday from the south-central Plains/Ozarks toward the Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will potentially be semi-persistent factors near/ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. However, the pre-convective warm sector will progressively moisten and cloud breaks should allow for modest diurnal destabilization across Louisiana into Mississippi and southern/eastern Arkansas. Some semi-discrete storms/supercells will be possible, but the modest prevalent scenario of convection may be quasi-linear bands with some embedded bows near the effective front. Damaging winds should be the most likely hazard along with the potential for a few tornadoes. The severe risk should develop toward eastern portions of Mississippi/Louisiana by Wednesday evening, and possibly reach western Alabama and/or western Tennessee later Wednesday night. ....Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest... The steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and related deepening phase (potentially reaching -1 mb/hr) of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from the Ozarks to the Midwest could influence a strongly forced low-topped convective line across the region Wednesday night. Concern exists for the potential of convectively enhanced wind gusts, possibly with little or no lightning flashes, even in the presence of minimal instability with northward extent. Given a pronounced nocturnal strengthening of deep-layer winds (highlighted by 100+ kt mid-level jet), along with steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities appear warranted even with thermodynamic uncertainties/limitations. ...Guyer.. 02/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .