Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 07 2023 00:53:35

ACUS01 KWNS 070053
SWODY1
SPC AC 070051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is minimal.

....01z Update...

Weak mid-level height falls will overspread the southern Plains
later tonight ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough ejecting
across the southern Rockies. Surface front has surged to a position
arcing from near EMP-END-CSM-AMA. This boundary will advance into
central OK later this evening where air mass continues to moisten,
where surface dew points are now into the lower 50s. 00z sounding
from OUN exhibits roughly 200 J/kg SBCAPE, but significantly capped
near 700mb. Even so, large-scale forcing should cool this layer with
time, and frontal ascent is expected to aid convection as the cap
weakens. It appears sufficient instability will evolve over the next
several hours such that lightning may develop within the deepest
post-frontal convection.

...Darrow.. 02/07/2023

$$

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