Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 06 2023 20:29:24

FOUS30 KWBC 062029
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 08 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING REGION...

A positively-titled trough ejecting out of the Four Corners region
Tuesday begins to take on a neutral-tilt as it approaches central
Texas. At the same time, a jet streak over the Ohio Valley
strengthens to near 130 kts by late Tuesday/early Wednesday,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across the ArkLaTex
region as it takes on an increasingly anticyclonic arc farther
downstream. Deep layer southerly flow ahead of the system will
usher higher moisture northward, characterized by precipitable
water values in excess of 1.25 inches (between 2 and 2.5 standard
deviations above the climatological mean). The favorable overlap
of strong lift, high moisture, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE
of 1000 J/kg) should produce intense rain rates exceeding 2"/hr at
times. In addition, deep layer flow being nearly parallel to
expected storm motions could allow for training/repeating rounds
of heavy rainfall. The models have been consistent with the
forcing in the big-picture for several days now.  However...there
has been a shift towards the main upper trough to be less
progressive than before...which necessitated shifting the Marginal
and Slight Risk areas a bit farther westward once again and to
trim a small portion of the Marginal Risk area on the northern
side of the previously issued areas.  The latest NASA SPoRT 0-40
cm relative soil moisture values remain above the 65th percentile
of climatology across a good portion of eastern TX (and 7-day
precipitation departures are as high as 300-600 percent of normal
across much of northern and eastern TX).

Bann/Churchill



Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!82RdfbCzt3w0KvG_Nz1Fwyvds7jWBDicpHS9Y5Tojw8v=
3tIuBcwE-ubSDzTAff9MbpugFbTovbl-sxXz7P3SEdr35Ec$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!82RdfbCzt3w0KvG_Nz1Fwyvds7jWBDicpHS9Y5Tojw8v=
3tIuBcwE-ubSDzTAff9MbpugFbTovbl-sxXz7P3S2GEe6-0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!82RdfbCzt3w0KvG_Nz1Fwyvds7jWBDicpHS9Y5Tojw8v=
3tIuBcwE-ubSDzTAff9MbpugFbTovbl-sxXz7P3SofGcDMg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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