Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 06 2023 17:11:34 ACUS02 KWNS 061711 SWODY2 SPC AC 061709 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening and overnight across portions of east/southeast Texas. ....Synopsis... A positively-tilted, mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern High Plains on Tuesday. Tuesday night, this trough will start to become negatively-tilted which will increase mass response and low-level flow across east Texas. At the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen and move toward northeast Texas as a cold front advances southeast. ....Southeast and East Texas... Low-level moisture will stream north across east Texas on Tuesday, but heating should be limited due to expansive cloud cover. Warm mid-level temperatures will therefore keep the atmosphere mostly capped through the day. Tuesday evening and into the overnight period, mid-level temperatures begin to cool as the upper-level trough moves east and becomes more negatively tilted. This should make thunderstorms more likely late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning in a region of strengthening isentropic ascent across east Texas. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a capped warm sector which should limit most storm development away from the cold front which is expected to remain in east Texas prior to 12Z Wednesday. The 12Z NAM is now slower with the surface low development, following the trend of both the ECMWF and GFS. Therefore, the conditional threat across Louisiana during the Day 2 period is unlikely and therefore, the marginal risk has been removed. Updraft strength will likely remain limited due to weak instability (~500 J/kg) and only modest shear (~30 knots). The stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain north of the cold front Tuesday night. However, greater instability, potentially as high as 1000 J/kg, is possible farther south where a few stronger storms could occur. Relatively weak thermodynamic profiles and modest shear should preclude the hail threat with damaging wind gusts as the primary concern through 12Z Wednesday. ...Bentley.. 02/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .