Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 06 2023 08:20:42

FOUS30 KWBC 060820
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 08 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND PORTIONS OF THE SURROUNDING REGION...

A positively-titled trough ejecting out of the Four Corners region
Tuesday begins to take on a neutral-tilt as it approaches central
Texas. Meanwhile, a downstream jet streak over the Ohio Valley
strengthens to near 130 kts by late Tuesday/early Wednesday,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across the ArkLaTex
region. Deep layer southerly flow ahead of the system will usher
higher moisture northward, characterized by precipitable water
values near 1.5" (between 2-3 standard deviations above the
climatological mean). Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
the strengthening low-level jet (850 mb flow 30-40 kts) and deep
layer lift is expected to produce several clusters of heavy
rainfall initially across northeast Texas into northern Arkansas
and far southern Missouri. The favorable overlap of strong lift,
high moisture, and sufficient instability (MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg)
should produce intense rain rates exceeding 2"/hr at times. In
addition, deep layer flow being nearly parallel to expected storm
motions could allow for training/repeating rounds of heavy
rainfall. The ECENS and GEFS members still show decent
probabilities for 2"+ totals over the period (with some potential
for isolated 3-4 inch amounts), although there was a notable (but
minor) shift towards the west of prior runs. As a result, the
Slight Risk area was shifted west according, and also once again
expanded (this time a bit towards the south) for this cycle. The
latest NASA SPoRT 0-40 cm layer soil moisture values remain above
the 90th percentile of climatology across a good portion of
eastern TX (and 7-day precipitation departures are as high as
300-600 percent of normal across much of northern and eastern TX).

Churchill/Bann


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96EuNKDa9-9gFMaC-nQ1O3ceSgETP6-q-xnTuy2sBk_A=
M1aJyrMhy_Y45J7xYhh6Iq7nl0HVjQdVU0cYysYHrh3vhyE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96EuNKDa9-9gFMaC-nQ1O3ceSgETP6-q-xnTuy2sBk_A=
M1aJyrMhy_Y45J7xYhh6Iq7nl0HVjQdVU0cYysYHUy2zoQ8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!96EuNKDa9-9gFMaC-nQ1O3ceSgETP6-q-xnTuy2sBk_A=
M1aJyrMhy_Y45J7xYhh6Iq7nl0HVjQdVU0cYysYHZaBsC2c$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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