Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 06 2023 07:02:14

ACUS02 KWNS 060702
SWODY2
SPC AC 060700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and night across portions of east/southeast Texas to
Louisiana and possibly southwest Mississippi.

....East/Southeast Texas and Louisiana/Southwest Mississippi...
A positive-tilt upper-level trough is expected to spread eastward
from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Air mass modification and low-level moistening will occur
across central/eastern Texas toward the ArkLaMiss region in advance
of a cold front spreading generally southeastward across the
southern Plains and Ozarks.

While cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent within the warm sector,
sufficient moistening/weak destabilization should allow for
thunderstorms to increase, particularly toward/after sunset across
central/east Texas near the advancing front. Although questions
exist regarding the exact degree of surface-based destabilization, a
few severe storms could occur during the evening across parts of
central/east Texas in the presence of increasingly strong
deep-layer/low-level shear. This would include the potential for
locally damaging winds and/or a tornado.

Farther east, at least a low/conditional-type severe risk may
develop late Tuesday night/early Wednesday into and across portions
of Louisiana and possibly southwest Mississippi. This would be as
the surface cyclone modestly deepens over the Ozarks and increasing
low-level moisture develops northward across this region,
potentially in a sufficient quantity to be conducive for a
near-surface-based severe risk, with locally damaging winds and/or a
tornado possible.

...Guyer.. 02/06/2023

$$

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