Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 06 2023 05:12:19

ACUS01 KWNS 060512
SWODY1
SPC AC 060510

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low across the Continental United
States Monday.

....Discussion...

Pronounced upper trough currently digging southeast toward the lower
CO River Valley will shift east into the southern Rockies by the end
of the period. This positive-tilted trough will encourage surface
pressures to rise across the Plains, driving a surface front into
central MO-eastern OK-northwest TX by 07/12z. While boundary-layer
moisture is expected to advance north across the southern Plains
today, forecast soundings suggest profiles should remain capped as
the front settles into this region. Very late in the period some
weak elevated instability may develop that could support weak
convection, however updraft depths are expected to remain too
shallow to warrant much lightning potential. Profiles become a bit
more unstable later into the day2 period along with increased
probabilities for thunderstorms.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 02/06/2023

$$

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