Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 20:22:32

FOUS30 KWBC 052022
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EST Sun Feb 05 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Florida to Space Coast...
There could still be local downpours over the highly urbanized
corridor of southeast Florida northward toward the Space Coast
through approximately 21Z today as moist easterly flow interacts
with low pressure forming along a quasi-stationary surface
boundary and weak low- to mid-level shortwave energy.  Numerous
showers will be drawn northward in association with the moisture
pool...which was where the latest hi-res guidance and 12Z HREF
suggested some potential for localized 2-3" totals along the
immediate coast. In addition to showers associated with the low
pressure area moving northward...there could be some more
convection during the afternoon in a region of confluent flow
along/ahead of a cold front farther south.  Any of these instances
could lead to localized runoff issues or short-term ponding in
areas of poor drainage before the focus shifts off-shore.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-WatPgsDLcm2I2fGhGpQA_Z6JaVR4UWFU33FySbg10ef=
2aMQC7fSrhA4odxhSDTgxTOGPyBT2HSfpnzNTzEEiAf7q0I$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-WatPgsDLcm2I2fGhGpQA_Z6JaVR4UWFU33FySbg10ef=
2aMQC7fSrhA4odxhSDTgxTOGPyBT2HSfpnzNTzEEc52RLJg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-WatPgsDLcm2I2fGhGpQA_Z6JaVR4UWFU33FySbg10ef=
2aMQC7fSrhA4odxhSDTgxTOGPyBT2HSfpnzNTzEE4yL4cfE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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