Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 19:08:55

ACUS01 KWNS 051908
SWODY1
SPC AC 051907

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

No changes were made to the previous outlook.

...Jewell.. 02/05/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023/

....Synopsis...
The potential for severe thunderstorms remains low for today.
Mid-morning water-vapor imagery reveals a broad upper ridge over the
Rockies/Plains flanked by broad troughs across the eastern CONUS and
West Coast. At the surface, a weak low is noted in visible imagery
near Lake Okeechobee in southern FL. This feature is expected to
deepen through the afternoon as it meanders east towards the FL
coast. Ongoing convection along the southeastern FL coast will
largely remain offshore, though additional convection is possible in
the vicinity of the surface low this afternoon. 40-50 knot
upper-level winds were sampled by regional 12 UTC RAOBS, but
increasing westerly flow in the low-levels will limit effective bulk
shear values and overall hodograph structure, resulting in limited
potential for storm organization. Across portions of CA, cold
temperatures aloft sampled in morning soundings, combined with a
persistent influx of Pacific moisture, will maintain the potential
for isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours.

$$

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