Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 13:01:57

ACUS01 KWNS 051301
SWODY1
SPC AC 051300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Florida/Southeast States...
A low-amplitude trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will reach
the coastal Southeast this evening. Across Florida, sufficient
moisture and supportive wind profiles could allow for a few
weak/transient supercells, mainly near east/southeast coastal areas
in vicinity of the northward-shifting boundary/moist sector.
However, poor mid-level lapse rates and a residual flow weakness
generally between 1-3 km AGL suggests that organized severe
potential should remain low. Late tonight, a few strong storms could
graze the North Carolina coast; however, appreciable moistening and
destabilization is not currently expected inland.

....West...
Very cold mid-level temperatures (<-30C at 500mb) will overspread
northern California into Nevada later today as a pronounced upper
trough advances inland. The steepest mid-level lapse rates will be
observed north of the jet as it digs toward the lower Colorado River
Valley during the latter half of the period. While a few flashes of
lightning may be noted with convection along the northern California
coast, a greater risk for isolated thunderstorms will be in upslope
regions of the Sierra Nevada during the afternoon.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 02/05/2023

$$

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